Refrigerator Parents

Two epidemiological case-control surveys have linked the age at which, growing up, your home got a refrigerator with your chances of getting Crohn’s Disease later in life. The controls (without Crohn’s) got refrigerators later than the cases (with Crohn’s). This is not one of those data-mining correlations. It was (a) predicted and (b) found in two independent studies.

Crohn’s Disease is much more common in rich countries than poor ones so it was reasonable to examine aspects of lifestyle that distinguish rich and poor countries. In rich countries, the likelihood of having Crohn’s seems to be increasing over time, which is more reason to look for environmental explanations. One of the studies was done in Tehran, where a significant fraction of the population didn’t have a refrigerator when they were born. The control group was patients with irritable bowel syndrome, a curious choice. (The differences might have been larger had they chosen a non-inflammatory digestive problem.) The other study was done in England and used a control group of patients with a non-inflammatory disease.

Refrigerators, of course, retard the growth of bacteria, which I believe everyone needs to eat plenty of (the umami hypothesis). Long ago, “ refrigerator mothers” — mothers who treated their children with insufficient warmth — were blamed for autism and schizophrenia in their children. Now that it is clear that autism is connected with digestive problems there may be ironic truth in the old claim.

Thanks to Dennis Mangan.

Refrigerator poetry.

Progress Announced in Scurvy Research

From here:

“Cure just around the corner”

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Scientists from the National Scurvy Institute (NSI) recently convened a 5-day conference to assess progress in the War on Scurvy. . . .
A cure is just around the corner, announced a spokesman at the conference. Over the past 30 years NSI, NIH (National Institute of Health) and ASS (American Scurvy Society) have spent over $30 billion on scurvy research. Pharmaceutical companies have over 80 new drugs in development to combat scurvy according to the FDA.

The 5-year survival rate after diagnosis of scurvy is over 50% up from 30% just 20 years ago although 500,000 Americans continue to die of the disease each year. . . .
Risk factors for scurvy include cigarette smoking, diets high in saturated fat, and long ocean voyages. Sailors are particularly at risk for the disease. A researcher at the University of Washington has speculated that there may be a substance in sea water that triggers the disease. . . .
Researchers at the University of Maryland, working on the Human Genome Project, have identified a “Scurvy gene.” From this it may be possible to develop a test to identify individuals at risk for the disease.

Scurvy doctors have long emphasized the importance of frequent screenings for scurvy in at-risk individuals. The disease can be effectively treated if detected early enough. Men and women over 40 should get regular checkups.

Conventional treatments for scurvy include frequent gum cleanings to combat the bleeding associated with the disease, surgical amputation of atrophied limbs that have been ravaged by the disease, and stimulants to combat the lassitude characteristic of the disease.

A pilot research program has been proposed to NSI that would study a possible connection between Vitamin C and scurvy. A study conducted on 20,000 Americans at the University of Florida showed a substantially higher rate of scurvy in people who don’t eat fruits and vegetables. Dr. Henry Jacobson, assistant director of NSI, was quick to point out that no such connection has ever been scientifically proven. Vitamin C as a treatment for scurvy remains on NSI’s “unproven remedies” list. Clinical trials conducted in the 70′s showed no effect of Vitamin C on scurvy, added an NSI spokesman.

In related news, officials at the American Pellagra Society (APS) have designated the month of May as “Pellagra Awareness Month”…

Tucker Max on Law School

When Tucker Max was in law school (at Duke, a top-rated law school), he made a bet with his friends. He claimed he could sign up for a class, attend none of the classes, do none of the reading, never study, and — armed only with class notes from a friend (who attended the class) that he brings to the final without previously studying — get a 2.5 or better on the final, thus passing the course. (Highest possible grade is 4.0.) And he would let them choose the class.

A friend chose Federal Tax. A really tough class, it was said. The final lasted two hours. It consisted of several hypothetical situations to which you write an essay-like answer. Tucker finished 20 minutes early. He got a 2.7, which wasn’t the lowest score in the class (of about 60 students).

More trouble with the basics at Duke. For whom do law schools exist?

Teaching Kids to Cook

Outside Berkeley Whole Foods I encountered this cooking camp in session — they teach kids 8-12 years old to cook in two-week sessions, 4 hours/day. I love the idea. I think childhood obesity is due to eating ditto foods (foods, usually factory-made, that taste exactly the same each time) — teaching someone how to cook is a good way to reduce that.

I asked if they included any fermented foods in the curriculum. “Tomorrow we’re making tofu,” said one of the counselors — a Nutrition major at UC Berkeley. Tofu is not a fermented food, I said. She wasn’t sure what a fermented food was.

Fermented Art, Beijing Style

From Time Out Beijing:

Veteran Beijing artist Gu Dexin . . . first turned European noses at a satellite show of the Venice Biennale in 1995, when he dumped three hundred kilos of raw beef into three glass coffins set in a local casino.

In the heat of summer, poisonous gases from the rotting meat quickly forced officials to clean up the show. This shy enfant terrible of the art world went on to astound European audiences in a succession of shows, placing raw meat or fruit in public places and letting them rot.

Up until this year, when he installed raw pork at the Legation Quarter, the formula has served him brilliantly. Part of the force of this current show is the absence of decay — resulting in a sterile and odourless silence.

How Much Should We Trust Clinical Trials?

Suppose you ask several experts how to choose a good car. Their answers reveal they don’t know how to drive. What should you conclude? Suppose these experts build cars. Should we trust the cars they’ve built?

Gina Kolata writes that “experts agree that there are three basic principles that underlie the search for medical truth and the use of clinical trials to obtain it.” Kolata’s “three basic principles” reveal that her experts don’t understand experimentation.

Principle 1. “It is important to compare like with like. The groups you are comparing must be the same except for one factor — the one you are studying. For example, you should compare beta carotene users with people who are exactly like the beta carotene users except that they don’t take the supplement.” An expert told her this. This — careful equation of two groups — is not how experiments are done. What is done is random assignment, which roughly (but not perfectly) equates the groups on pre-experimental characteristics. A more subtle point is that the X versus No X design is worse than a design that compares different dosages of X. The latter design makes it less likely that control subjects will get upset because they didn’t get X and makes the two groups more equal.

Principle 2. “The bigger the group studied, the more reliable the conclusions.” Again, this is not what happens. No one with statistical understanding judges the reliability of an effect by the size of the experiment; they judge it by the p value (which takes account of sample size). The more subtle point is that the smaller the sample size, the stronger the effect must be to get reliable results. Researchers try to conserve resources so they try to keep experiments as small as possible. Small experiments with reliable results are more impressive than large experiments with equally reliable results — because the effect must be stronger. This is basically the opposite of what Kolata says.

Principle 3. In the words of Kolata’s expert, it’s “Bayes theorem”. He means consider other evidence — evidence from other studies. This is not only banal, it is meaningless. It is unclear — at least from what Kolata writes — how to weigh the various sources of evidences (what if the other evidence and the clinical trials disagree?).

Kolata also quotes David Freedman, a Berkeley professor of statistics who knew the cost of everything and the value of nothing. Perhaps it starts in medical school. As I blogged, working scientists, who have a clue, don’t want to teach medical students how to do research.

If this is the level of understanding of the people who do clinical trials, how much should we trust them? Presumably Kolata’s experts were better than average — a scary thought.

Michael Bailey on Michael Jackson’s Sexuality

The Man Who Would Be Queen by Michael Bailey, a professor of psychology at Northwestern, isn’t just the best book about psychology I have ever read, it is one of the best books about anything I have ever read, right up there with Totto-Chan by Tetsuko Kuroyanagi and The Economy of Cities by Jane Jacobs.

Now Bailey has written a brilliant analysis of Michael Jackson’s sexuality. Bailey writes:

Jackson’s weirdness was so multifaceted that it presents both a challenge and an opportunity. . . . I propose an explanation of Michael Jackson that, if true, can explain several seemingly unrelated things: Â the molestation accusations and interest in children, the obsession with Peter Pan, and the facial surgeries.

Plus the high-pitched voice. This is a basic point about causal inference not widely appreciated: If several rare things might have the same explanation, they probably do. Bailey’s conclusion is that Jackson had a very rare sexual identity disorder: He was sexually aroused by thinking of himself as a barely pubescent boy, just as a tiny number of men are sexually aroused by thinking of themselves as amputees (and these men try to become amputees) and a larger number of men are sexually aroused by thinking of themselves as a woman (and these men often have sex-change operations).

His facial surgeries made Jackson look unlike anyone else:

Normal people would hate to look like Michael Jackson did near the end of his life, and so normal people tend to assume that the surgeries were a series of big, compounded mistakes that Jackson must have regretted. Bad plastic surgery surely happens. But when it does, it is generally recognizable as a poor rendition of an aesthetically pleasing goal. Not so Michael Jackson’s face, which resembled nothing in the actual human, living world. Moreover, it has seemed to me that there was something coherent about the redesign of his face . . . If so, the 13 surgeries may be explained by something other than 13 different errors of judgment. . .

The face and the voice were both unnatural, and he went to a lot of trouble to have them. What was he trying to say and show with them? He told us, quite directly, the most likely answer.

“I am Peter Pan,” he said, more than once. He lived in Neverland. His second wife, Debbie Rowe, said that in order to get in the mood to have sex with her, Jackson dressed up as Peter Pan and danced around the bedroom. She said: “It made him feel romantic.”

Peter Pan, in the Disney version that Jackson knew, was a barely pubescent boy.

I wonder if diversity of sexual orientation persists because it produces diversity of occupation. People who enjoy unusual jobs have an advantage (less competition). Homosexual men probably have fewer children than heterosexual men — but what if homosexual men had an occupational advantage? Then they could make more money (or whatever) and their children would be better off. This would explain the persistence of homosexuality. Jackson, of course, was a huge occupational success. Bailey says a little about this:

Does my theory say anything about the origins of Michael Jackson’s tremendous talent? There are some correlations between sexuality and [occupational] abilities. For example, gay men are vastly overrepresented among professional dancers and fashion designers. This may reflect their increased interest in and dedication to dance and fashion, rather than natural talent per se. Autogynephiles [men sexually aroused by thinking of themselves as a woman] tend to be gifted in technical, mathematical, and scientific pursuits, with computer scientist being the prototypic autogynephilic occupation. But we don’t really know anything about the occupational interests of hebephiles [men attracted to barely pubescent boys], much less autohebephiles.