Month: April 2011

Google Uses My Credit Card Without Telling Me

Seth Roberts10 Comments

Last week, while looking at Google Voice I noticed a button that said “Get $10″. I thought it meant “get $10 credit for trying it” so I pushed the button. Ten dollars credit showed up. Since Google Voice is free for the calls I make I had no use for $10 credit but maybe someday….

A few days later I happened to look at my credit card bill. Google had billed me $10! I didn’t even know they knew my credit card number! It hadn’t been required for the $10 transaction. I haven’t consciously used Google Checkout. I haven’t given it to them in any other connection. Talk about data mining…

When I go to Account Settings listed under my Gmail address, one of the sections is My Products, meaning My Google Products. Under that is listed Google Checkout, although I’ve never signed up for it and (I thought) never used it. So why is it there? I looked in Google Checkout. The Google Voice $10 transaction is the only transaction listed. As far as I can tell, this proves I didn’t use Google Checkout in the past (say, 4 months ago) and forget about it. Google really did get and use my credit card number without telling me, much less asking me.

My credit card company quickly gave me a refund.

 

The Global Warming Test

Seth Roberts19 Comments

One episode of A History of Ancient Britain, the recent BBC series, is about the Ice Age. If you know there was an Ice Age, you should grasp that the Earth varies in temperature a lot for reasons that have nothing to do with human activity. To measure the effect of recent human activity on global temperatures, you need to know what the Earth’s temperature would have been in the absence of human activity. Then you find the effect of humans by subtraction (actual temperature – predicted temperature assuming no human activity).

That’s hard to do. Because the non-human effects are so large, you need a really accurate model to “control” for them. No such model is available. No current climate model has been shown to accurately predict global temperatures — the IPCC chapter called “Climate Models and Their Evaluation” (informal title: “Why You Should Believe Them”) is the most humorous evidence of that. Lack of accurate predictions means there is no good reason to trust them. (That the models can fit past data means little because they have many adjustable parameters. “With four parameters I can fit an elephant,” said John von Neumann.) The case against the view that humans have dangerously warmed the climate (sometimes called AGW, anthropogenic global warming) is that simple.

Because it is so simple, “the other side” consists of saying why 2+2 really does equal 20 or whatever. Sure, many people say it, so what? When I was an undergrad, I gave a talk called “The Scientific ____ “. I said usage of the term scientific without explaining what it meant was a sign of incompetence and a reader could safely stop reading right there. That isn’t terribly helpful, because few people use scientific that way. My grown-up version of this test is that when someone claims AGW is true, I stop taking them seriously as a thinker. I don’t mean they can’t do good work — Bill McKibben is an excellent journalist, for example. Just not original thought.

 

 

 

What I’m Watching

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  1. The Killing (the American version on AMC). The best TV is getting smarter and smarter and this is an example. It seems formulaic (combine good acting, good writing, good visuals, suspense . . . ) but the formula is so effective and well-executed I am drawn in.
  2. The Good Wife. The last drama standing.
  3. The Spice Trails. The global and historical origins of pepper, cinnamon, nutmeg, cloves, saffron and vanilla.
  4. Civilization: Is the West History? Pleasantly conceptual. Why did China decline, while Europe rose? Why did democracy do so much better in North America than South America?
  5. A History of Ancient Britain. Through the eyes of an archeologist.

 

My Treadmill Desk

Seth Roberts5 Comments

In 1996 I put a treadmill in my office so that I could work standing up. My goal was better sleep (the more I stood, the better I slept), not weight loss (the usual reason for a treadmill desk). It was hard to walk a lot. Mostly I stood still. It was noisy, too — my neighbors complained. When the treadmill broke I didn’t replace it.

Now I walk on a treadmill for different reasons: to lower blood sugar and learn Chinese. Above is my current setup. I use the laptop to study Chinese (using Anki) or watch TV or movies. Studying Chinese while walking is much easier than studying Chinese while standing still or sitting. I have used flashcards but Anki (shown on the computer screen) helps space repetitions optimally. The headphones (Bose noise-reduction) are for TV and movies. I don’t need them for Anki.

Yogurt Accident/Discovery

Seth Roberts9 Comments

I’ve made yogurt a few hundred times, mostly with a yogurt maker (picture below). The usual recipe is 1 quart milk, 1/4 teaspoon whey (from previous batch), incubate 24 hours. Yesterday, after incubation finished, I opened the machine to find this:

The milk (now yogurt) had squeezed together to form a perfectly round disc a few inches thick. It had squeezed out all the whey. The only unusual feature of this batch — besides the fact that it is getting warm and relatively humid here in Beijing — is that I used maybe 10% less milk than usual. This difference means the pulling inward force was less resisted by sticking to the sides, so this outcome indeed was more likely than usual.

This is my yogurt maker.

I bought it because it came with a glass bowl. Most yogurt makers have only a plastic bowl. You simply pour the milk in the glass bowl, add the starter (whey), add hot (boiling) water around the glass bowl, and wait a day — infinitely easier than the insanely complicated yogurt recipes I find on the Web. And I am beginning to think the hot water is unnecessary.

 

 

Dear Gmail: Publish Break-in Stats

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A year ago my gmail account was hacked. I recovered it in an hour or so, not before a friend of mine had an amusing conversation. Recently, judging by James Fallows’s experiences, there has been a rise in these attacks. My mistake, I believe, was using the same password on my gmail account and another account. I suspect the recent outbreak of gmail break-ins is happening because there was recently a large exposure of passwords elsewhere.

But I can’t be sure because I cannot compare break-ins over time. What does a graph of break-ins-versus-time look like? Is what Fallows has noticed a recent spike? (It probably is.) If so, that supports my explanation of its cause (passwords lost elsewhere). Or has there been a steady increase over time? That would contradict my explanation. It is revealing that Fallows provides two security suggestions, one of them really time-consuming (two-stage verification) in the long haul. He says nothing about making sure your gmail password is not used anywhere else. If he could have seen that break-ins-versus-time graph, he could better judge whether the gmail hacks are due to duplicated passwords. If I am right about the cause of these hacks, Suggestion #3 should have been don’t use your gmail password anywhere else — and would have been the most effective.

Gmail developers can help all of us be safe at reasonable cost by publishing graphs that show break-ins (and probability of break-in) per day. I think that is estimated by the number of account recovery requests they receive per day. After my gmail account was hacked, I contacted Google to recover it and soon did. Perhaps those account recovery requests could involve the person making the request giving a reason (e.g., “account hijacked”). Then Google could simply tell us (with a graph?) the number of hijacked accounts reported per day.

Security departments and others don’t like to provide this sort of information. Persons at the top of companies worry it will scare customers! Those in security departments worry people will be less scared — thus reducing their power. From a user point of view these are horrible reasons not to make this information public. With accurate knowledge of the likelihood of break-ins, gmail users can make reasonable estimates of the costs and benefits of various security options. Without knowing the likelihood of break-ins, they can’t.

Assorted Links

Seth Roberts1 Comment

Thanks to Craig Fratrik, Tom George and Sean Curley.

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Downward Spiral of Whole Foods House Brand

Seth Roberts16 Comments

My friend Carl Willat sent me this photo with the comment “noticeably worse” — meaning that the new version (on the right) is noticeably worse than the old version (on the left). 365 is the Whole Foods house brand. Years ago,the label of 365 balsamic vinegar said “aged 5 years”. Then one day it didn’t. The younger vinegar (aged 1 year?) tasted noticeably worse. In a side-by-side comparison, it was obvious.

Side-by-side comparisons, I discovered thanks to Carl, are powerful — and I could use that power to improve my life. A long time ago at his apartment I tasted five versions of limoncello (Italian lemon liqueur) side by side. Of course the differences became clearer–that’s obvious. The surprise was that all of a sudden I cared about the differences. Before that tasting, I had had plenty of limoncello. But only at the side-by-side tasting did I develop a liking for the good stuff (more complex flavor) and a dislike for the cheaper stuff (simpler flavor). I stopped buying cheap limoncello and started buying expensive limoncello. I got a lot of pleasure out of it. I still do this. A few weeks ago I bought some rum to flavor my yogurt. I started with the cheapest brand. A week later, to compare, I got a more expensive brand. Side-by-side tasting showed it was clearly better. Now I sort of relish it — the side-by-side comparison made rum drinking more enjoyable. Soon I will get an even more expensive rum, to see how it stacks up.

I’m pretty sure such side-by-side comparisons are how connoisseurs are made. The evolutionary reason for this effect, I believe, is that connoisseurs will pay more than other people for well-made stuff, thus helping skilled artisans — during the Stone Age, the main source of innovation — make a living.

In Carl’s picture the new vinegar looks much cheaper than the old vinegar. The previous change (from aged 5 years to not aged 5 years) wasn’t accompanied by a cheaper-looking label. Maybe Whole Food headquarters had received complaints from manufacturers of other balsamic vinegars: Your house brand is too good. And they replied: Okay, we’ll cheapen it.

Another Reason the Shangri-La Diet is Not More Popular

Seth Roberts11 Comments

On my Psychology Today blog someone left a surprising comment about why the Shangri-La Diet isn’t more popular:

Seth, I’ll tell you why. Because we are majorly competitive bitches, we women who care about our appearance. I’m 41, I have three children and I am a size 6. I fit into my wedding dress and the jeans I wore in college. How? Shangri-La. And there is no way in hell I am going to share my secret with anyone.

Went to the movies this weekend with a group of friends. They had the usual movie fare, I ordered a cup of tea (bag on the side), added two tablespoons of sugar (put the teabag in my purse for later), sipped it slowly throughout the movie, had not ONE craving for the popcorn or nachos or M&M’s everyone else was scarfing. I went home and had a light dinner and felt terrific!

Sounds more like an ad than an actual comment, but it could hardly be more vivid and I believe it.