Nature Editorializes on Climategate

It reads like something from Shouts and Murmurs in The New Yorker:

If there are benefits to the e-mail theft, one is to highlight yet again the harassment that denialists inflict on some climate-change researchers, often in the form of endless, time-consuming demands for information under the US and UK Freedom of Information Acts.

If only all Nature editorials were this amusing. It ends with the same pompous reference to “science” as Elizabeth Kolbert’s review of Superfreakonomics:

The pressures the UEA e-mailers experienced may be nothing compared with what will emerge as the United States debates a climate bill next year, and denialists use every means at their disposal to undermine trust in scientists and science.

Thanks to Bruce Charlton.

More Here’s what James McCarthy, Alexander Agassiz Professor of Biological Oceanography at Harvard and President-elect of AAAS, has to say: “The content of a few personal emails has no impact whatsoever on our overall understanding that human activity is driving dangerous levels of global warming.” He is ignoring the fact that the data has been revealed to be a huge mess.

Foot Fungus Cured With Socks

A friend writes:

I remember reading on your blog about more socks as a cure for Athlete’s Foot and I had a fungal infection on my foot from climbing around barefoot outside, I think. I tried using two different antifungal creams. They didn’t work. To be honest I didn’t use them for the recommended time cuz it’s a huge fucking hassle. You have to put it on your feet, let it dry, rub it in blah blah blah. And it’s kinda gross to use. So I went to Uniqlo [a Japanese clothing store] and bought like 20 pairs of extra socks and forgot about it. But when I wash socks the washed ones get put in the back of the drawer so the effect is the socks I wear spend like 3-4 days away from my feet every time. Anyway, the infection COMPLETELY disappeared. There is a weird sense of satisfaction from this kind of cure. It feels like just by doing some small things ‘right’ all these health issues can be fixed.

I had foot fungus for years, I too tried antifungal creams without success, and the problem cleared up within days when I bought a lot more socks. It has remained cleared-up. You could call it the staging-area problem: Our things act as staging areas for harmful bugs. Another example is getting an eye infection from pillowcases.

The Parable of the Children’s Book

In 2007, Laurie David, producer of An Inconvenient Truth, ex-wife of Larry David, and self-described “global warming activist,” published The Down To Earth Guide to Global Warming, a book for children. It contained a graph showing the very strong correlation over time between carbon dioxide levels and global temperature. The point was that carbon dioxide controlled global temperature. But there was a problem: The graph was mislabeled. The function labeled “carbon dioxide” was actually the temperature function. Correctly labeled, the graph showed that carbon dioxide changes followed temperature changes. Which meant that the temperature changes had caused the carbon-dioxide changes, rather than the other way around — which was one of the book’s main points.

David’s reaction to the mistake?

Thanks guys! We will correct the illustration in the next edition. We’re happy to learn that that was the only question SPPI had about the entire fact-filled book!

As if it’s trivial.

Moral: A sign of things to come.

More The fact that a producer of An Inconvenient Truth, the movie that arguably won Al Gore a Nobel Prize, could (a) make such a basic mistake and (b) dismiss it as trivial is the ladies-who-lunch equivalent of the fact that Jones and other CRU scientists were scared of a New York Times reporter.

Climategate: Its Educational Value

Before the printing press, there were very few books. It was extremely hard to learn math; you had to pay a tutor. Of course literacy was very low — but all knowledge that could be transmitted through books (such as math) was very low.

Science cannot be taught through books. You can learn a lot about calculus by reading books. You can learn almost nothing important about science. Science is not a collection of facts, it is a method, a way of gathering knowledge. Almost always it is taught by doing — by working in a lab, for example. Just as, before printed books, almost no one could do any math, it is true today that almost no one can do any science. (Most doctors think the bigger the sample size, the better.)

If you look at a biology textbook, it is full of conclusions. It says practically nothing about the process by which those conclusions were reached. For some reason biologists have decided not to teach that — perhaps because it is difficult and messy to teach. And someone might be offended. Whatever the reason, the process goes undescribed. And it’s all sciences, not just biology. (Until recently, economists avoided teaching data. At least in introductory economics, data was too messy for them.)

As long as you have to learn science by doing it practically no one will understand it — just as almost no one did math when you had to hire a tutor to learn it. But now we have the Internet. And blogs. Two new things have entered the picture: a great deal of emotion (blogs are full of emotion, unlike textbooks); and unlimited space. Now science can begin to be taught without actually doing an apprenticeship. If you add enough emotion, anything becomes riveting. And there is now plenty of room for all the false starts and messy details. I suppose most scientists who blog are too worried about being dignified to say anything emotional or messy, but that doesn’t matter because there are so many bloggers.

According to Stephen Dubner, “if you are fan of science, this [Climategate] is a pretty grim day.” I think it’s a great day. As great as the day the first math text was printed. It’s the first time a large number of people are getting a real lesson in science. Mainstream media coverage is pathetic but there are so many bloggers it doesn’t matter. You can read about it endlessly. As you do, you will painlessly and unforgettably learn what Leonard Syme taught his students for years, and what I blogged about a few weeks ago: The apparent consensus on any difficult issue is more fragile than it looks. You are learning how conclusions are actually arrived at. It isn’t pretty — which textbook writers and professors, seeking dignity above all else, fail to mention.

Climategate: Its Educational Value (continued)

In a response to the comments on my previous post, I say that the primary attitude of science isn’t to be skeptical, it is to think for yourself. (Which, in practice, means ignoring what fancy hot-shot scientists at prestigious universities tell you to think.) Funny that fancy hot-shot scientists at prestigious universities never teach that.

Or almost never. In another comment on that post, Andrew Gelman mentions the Feynman Lectures as books from which you can learn about science. Having read Volume 1, I have no idea what he means. I was a freshman at Caltech. Feynman was a professor there at the time. The Feynman Lectures had been published but they were judged too difficult for most of the freshmen! I am not kidding. The faculty had learned that they were too hard to understand. They didn’t teach what the faculty called “problem-solving” — that is, deriving predictions from theories. So there were two tracks of Intro Physics at Caltech: the Feynman track (fewer students) and the non-Feynman track (more students). I was in the Feynman track. He wasn’t the professor, but we used his book. That’s how I came to read Volume 1. I liked it, but it didn’t teach me anything important about science.

Yet — during the exact same time, freshman year — Feynman himself did teach me something important about how to be a scientist. He taught me (= encouraged me) to think for myself. Not in any obvious way. On Wednesdays at 11:00 am, Feynman would answer questions for an hour. Anything except textbook problem-solving questions. There were more than a thousand students at Tech but maybe 20-30 attended these little sessions. One day I asked: “I’ve read some philosophy. It doesn’t make sense. Yet lots of people say it’s important. Am I missing something, or does it have as little value as I think it has?” Feynman’s answer: He agreed with me. There was one book of philosophy he liked, a survey by Bertrand Russell, but for the rest of it, it was people talking and talking and saying nothing.

Wow, he agrees with me, I thought. I had reached what I thought was a very minority opinion — an opinion I’d read nowhere else, had heard nowhere else — and this famous person who I respected agreed with me! It certainly taught me to think for myself.

ClimateGate: An Inside Job?

As a commenter pointed out, the real scandal is the state of the data. University of East Anglia Climate Research Unit researchers were very reluctant to give anyone their raw data and now it is clear why: It would have been like opening a door and showing a giant mess. I wonder if the frustrated programmer who had to work with the data finally decided enough was enough. He was tired of his bosses (research scientists, such as Phil Jones) using his work to deceive the rest of world on a very important issue. Maybe he felt guilty. And decided to put an end to it. He could have easily told someone outside how to gain access. In the Ranjit Chandra case, one of his employees was the first whistleblower.

Professor Michael Mann of Penn State University, whose veracity has been called into question by the scandal, says he’s glad that he’s being investigated.

“I would be disappointed if the university wasn’t doing all [it] can to get as much information as possible” about the controversy, Mann tells the Daily Collegian.

The Hygiene Hypothesis, Pro and Con

According to BBC News, recent research supports the hygiene hypothesis:

Normal bacteria living on the skin trigger a pathway that helps prevent inflammation when we get hurt, the US team discovered. The bugs dampen down overactive immune responses that can cause cuts and grazes to swell, they say.

And other recent research says it’s wrong:

The decades-old “hygiene hypothesis” holds that early exposure to microbes somehow challenges the immune system and strengthens it against allergies. Studies have shown children exposed to bugs by older siblings or attending nursery cut their future allergy risk.

But new work published by the American Thoracic Society casts doubt on this.

The study by Dutch investigators at the Erasmus University found although children in day care got more colds and other infections, they were just as likely as other children to go on to develop asthma or another allergy by the age of eight. The children who went to nursery and who had older siblings had more than quadruple the risk of frequent chest infections and double the risk of wheezing in early life, with no obvious pay off in terms of later protection from allergy.

The original hygiene hypothesis said that exposure to harmful germs (e.g., that cause colds) cuts down on allergy risk. But it’s now clear it’s the exposure to harmless germs (e.g., in dirt) that’s helpful.

Allergies in the UK have tripled in the last 10 years. I believe this is due to greater consumption of food that is germ-free, such as factory food and restaurant food. Shelf-life considerations and food-safety laws, in other words.

Advice given by Allergy UK:

The best advice we can currently give to parents is not to smoke around their children and make sure they have a balanced diet and get plenty of exercise.

Not even close to what I think. My advice is: Feed your kids plenty of fermented food, such as yogurt. I’d bet a lot of money that my advice is better.
Thanks to Mark Griffith.

A Clue About How To Sleep Better

A few nights ago I slept surprisingly well: I woke up feeling more rested than usual. Each morning I judge how rested I feel on a scale from 0 to 100 where 0 = as if I hadn’t slept and 100 = completely drained of tiredness. I got scores of 100 after standing 9 or 10 hours during the day. That showed what was possible but that much standing was unsustainable. Without extreme standing, 99 has seemed to be the maximum.

A few nights ago, I did better. The ratings for that night and the preceding four nights were: 98.9, 98.8, 99, 98.8, 99.2. Doesn’t look like much, but actually the improvement was so clearly unusual I didn’t need records to notice it. If I gave the scores for the preceding 100 nights you’d see it was rare to score above 99. Moreover, I was keeping the amount of animal fat I ate constant, unlike previous nights with scores above 99. The difference between 98.8 and 99.2 is easy to notice. Think of the difference between 12 and 8.

What had improved my sleep? I could think of four unusual things about the preceding day:

1. Several cloves of garlic in the pork-belly soup I ate for lunch. I’d never before added any garlic.

2. I began using f.lux, which reduced the color temperature of my computer screen after sunsight.

3. I’d played Dance Dance Revolution (on the Wii) for 10 minutes at 8 pm. Usually I do it in the morning (much longer, 30-50 minutes).

4. More bike riding than usual (including two long stretches that added up to 66 minutes).

All four seemed unlikely. 1. Who’d heard of garlic improving sleep? Not me. 2. Laptop screens are quite dim compared to sunlight. 3. The amount of exercise was small. I’d played Wii Tennis for longer periods in the evening without noticing any change. DDR in the morning hadn’t made an obvious difference. 4. I’d ridden my bike for 50-odd minutes at a stretch without noticing better sleep. This was only slightly more.

Now I am testing these possibilities. If you have any idea which it is — perhaps it is none of them — please comment.

Kombucha Reduces Free Radicals

Trichloroethylene (TCE) is a common industrial solvent for many years used as an anesthetic. It appears to cause liver damage. A recent experiment with rats asked if kombucha could protect against TCE damage. For at least two measures, it did. TCE raised free radicals in the blood by a factor of 6; kombucha reduced the increase to a factor of 2. TCE also increased gamma-glutamyl transferase (GGT) activity, a mark of liver damage; kombucha reduced GGT activity to normal levels.

The paper’s bibliography includes a reference to a survey of kombucha’s health effects:

Dufresne C, Farnworth E: Tea, kombucha health: a review. Food Res Int 2000, 336:409-421.

The researcher brewed the kombucha that was used (for about ten days). Weirdly the source of the kombucha is given under “Competing Interests” at the end of the paper.
This article will appear in the journal Chinese Medicine — but I have not found kombucha for sale in Beijing.

Congratulations, Andrew Rivkin

Andrew Rivkin writes about climate change for the New York Times. One of the stolen emails says:

At 17:07 27/10/2009, Michael Mann wrote:

Hi Phil,

p.s. be a bit careful about what information you send to Andy and what emails you copy him in on. He’s not as predictable as we’d like

In other words: Most reporters are predictable. Meaning they repeat what they are told instead of thinking for themselves. Otherwise there would be no need to say this.

Think about it. Michael Mann, a respected climate scientist, thinks that whatever line he and Phil Jones, another respected climate scientist, are pushing is so poorly supported by the evidence that they worry about a New York Times reporter finding holes in it! Independent thinking, even by someone without technical training, worries them! Really, it’s hard to avoid concluding that these guys are clowns, propped up by all sorts of people (journalists, Al Gore, many others) who benefit from a false certainty about this stuff.

Please, someone tell me: Why should I believe climate models? Have their predictions (not their fits) been compared to what actually happened?