Interview with Tyler Cowen

Tyler Cowen’s new book Create Your Own Economy: The Path to Prosperity in a Disordered World has a lot to say about two topics in which I am especially interested: autism and human diversity. What can the rest of us learn from people with autism? What does the wide range of outcomes among autistic adults tell us about our world? I interviewed Tyler by email about his book.

ROBERTS If I remember correctly, you think a book should be new, true, and something else. What’s the something else?

COWEN The “something else” should cover at least two qualities.

First, if everyone read the book and was persuaded by it, would anything change for the better? An author should aim to write a book which matters.

Second, the book should reflect something the author really cares about. If the author doesn’t care, why should the reader?

ROBERTS What was the tipping point for this book — the event that made you say: I’m going to write a book about THIS?

COWEN To me it’s very important what an author is thinking about in his or her spare time, if the phrase “spare time” even applies to my life, which has an extreme blending of work and leisure time. Ideally that is what an author should be writing about. At some point you realize: “Hey, I am constantly thinking about xxxxx in my spare time!” And then you want to write it up.

I also hit up the idea of this book through pondering the lives of some particular individuals I know — and how much they *live* the thesis of my book — although I am not sure they would wish to be identified publicly.

ROBERTS Have you been to Autreat, the annual conference of Autism Network International, that you mention? If so, did it affect your thinking?

COWEN I haven’t been to Autreat, which for me is located somewhat inconveniently away from major cities (that is on purpose, I believe). I’m also not clear on exactly who is welcome, who needs an invitation, etc. Most conferences have a very high variance in quality across presentations and mostly one goes to meet one or two key people; often you don’t know in advance who they will be. I suspect the same logic applies to Autreat as well.

ROBERTS Do you think there are jobs that persons with autism do better than persons without autism?

COWEN Autistics often exhibit superior skills in attention to detail, pattern recognition, what I call “mental ordering,” and they have areas of strong preferred interests, in which they are very often superb self-educators. So yes, that will make many autistics very good at some jobs but also poorly suited for others. But I don’t want to generalize and say “autistics are better at job X,” that would be misleading. Across autistics there is a wide variety of cognitive skills and also problems. Engineering and computer science are the stereotypical areas where you expect to find higher than average rates of autism. While I suspect this is true in terms of the average, it can be misleading to focus on the stereotype precisely because of the high variance of skills and outcomes among autistics. One of the central issues in understanding autism is grasping the connection between the underlying unity of the phenomenon and the extreme variability of the results. In the short run, positive stereotypes can perform a useful educating function. But the more we present stereotypes, the more we are getting people away from coming to terms with that more fundamental issue, namely an understanding of the variance.

ROBERTS There is a basic biological phenomenon in which animals and plants under stress become more variable. Some say variability in the genotype has been released into the phenotype. Do you think the variance seen in autism has been “released” in some way?

COWEN I am not sure I understand the question…for one thing I am not sure what is the postulated increase in genetic stress…

ROBERTS Yes, it’s a confusing question. Let’s try this: What do you think the high variance of outcome seen in autism is telling us?

COWEN I’ll try to make that more concrete. One view of autism is that autistics have greater access to lower-level perception and such that access is essential for understanding autism. On one hand it gives autistics some special abilities, such as pattern recognition, certain kinds of information processing, and noticing small changes with great skill. (In some cases this also leads to savant-like abilities.) This also may be connected to some of the problems which autistics experience, such as hyper-sensitivities to some kinds of public environments.

It could be that non-autistics have a faculty, or faculties, which “cut off” or automatically organize a lot of this lower level perception. The implication would be that for autistics this faculty is somehow weaker, missing, or “broken.” The underlying unity in autism would be that this faculty is somehow different, relative to non-autistics. The resulting variance is that the difference in this faculty gives rise to abilities and disabilities which very much differ across autistics.

That’s one attempt to come to terms with both the unity of autism and the variance within it. It’s a tough question and we don’t know the right answer yet, in my view. What I outlined is just one hypothesis.

ROBERTS A clear parallel in the increased variance of autistic persons is the increased variance of left-handers. Left-handers have brain organizations that vary much more than the brain organization of right-handers. Right-handers are all one way; left-handers are all over the place. Do you see any similarities between left-handers and persons with autism?

COWEN I recall some claims that autistics are more likely to be left-handed but I’ve never looked into their veracity. There are so many false claims about autism that one must be very careful.

ADHD is another example of something which produces high variance outcomes. I don’t think it is correct to call it a disorder *per se*.

We’re just starting to wrap our heads around the “high variance” idea. Most people have the natural instinct to attach gross labels of good or bad even when a subtler approach is called for.

ROBERTS The term left-hander is confusing because left-handers aren’t the opposite of right-handers. The dichotomy is okay but the two sides are better labeled right-handers and non-right-handers. In other words, one group (right-handers) has something (a certain brain organization); the other group doesn’t have that brain organization. Then the vast difference in variance makes sense. How accurate would it be to say that non-autistics have something than autistics don’t have? (I’m left-handed, by the way.)

COWEN I would say we still don’t have a fully coherent definition of autism. And “have” is a tricky word. I think of autistic brains as different, rather than “normal” brains with “missing parts.” Some researchers postulate differences in the kind of connections autistic brains make. In thirty years I expect we will know much, much more than we do right now.

ROBERTS I hope this isn’t too self-indulgent: What do you make of the correlation between autism and digestive problems?

COWEN I don’t think there are convincing theories about either digestive problems causing autism or autism causing digestive problems. There is *maybe* a correlation through a common genetic cause, but even if that is true it is not very useful as a means of understanding autism. This is another area where there are many strong opinions, often stronger than are justified by the facts.

ROBERTS Another “assorted” question: I loved the study you mentioned where people with perfect pitch were more likely to be eccentric than those without perfect pitch. That’s quite a result. How did you learn about it?

COWEN There is a somewhat scattered literature on music, cognition, and society. It still awaits synthesis, it seems. Someone could write a very good popular book on the topic. (Maybe Gabriel Rossman is the guy to do it.) The more I browsed that literature, the more interesting results I found.

ROBERTS I don’t think I’ve done justice to your extremely original book but here is a last question. You talk about Thomas Schelling’s use of stories. Presumably in contrast to other econ professors. I think of story-telling being something that once upon a time everyone did — it was the usual way to teach. Why do you think Schelling told stories much more than those around him?

COWEN Thanks for the kind words. Schelling has a unique mind, as anyone who has known him will attest. I don’t know any other economist or social scientist who thinks like he does, but we’ve yet to figure out what exactly his unique element consists of. I would say that Schelling views story-telling as a path to social science wisdom. They’re not even anecdotes, they’re stories. Maybe that doesn’t sound convincing to an outsider, but it got him a Nobel Prize.

I am very interested in the topic of “styles of thought in economics.”

Depression and Insomnia Linked at CureTogether

Fourteen years ago I woke up one morning and felt really really good: cheerful, eager, and yet somehow serene. I was stunned: There was no obvious cause. I hadn’t slept particularly well. Nothing wonderful had happened the day before. But there was one thing . . . the previous day I’d watched a tape of Jay Leno right after waking up. I’d thought it might improve my sleep. Now — a day later — my mood was better. Could there be a connection? Two very rare events: A (TV early in the morning) and B (very good mood upon awakening). Did A cause B? Such causality would be far different than anything we’re familiar with. Yet it made some sense: From teaching introductory psychology, I knew that depression and insomnia are related. If you have one you are more likely to have the other. I had done something to improve my sleep; had it improved my mood? The already-known depression-insomnia linkage made the new idea, the cause-effect relation, far more plausible. Subsequent experiments led me to a whole new theory of mood and depression.

CureTogether has found another example of the familiar depression-insomnia correlation. Persons with depression are twice as likely to have insomnia as persons without depression. CureTogether gathered this data much more cheaply than previous studies. Unlike previous researchers, they were under no pressure to publish. (Professional researchers must publish regularly to keep their grants and their job.) Unlike previous researchers, they were under no pressure to follow a party line.

On the face of it depression makes you less active. Yet insomnia is a case of being too active. So the depression-insomnia link is far from obvious. Lots of other facts connect depression and circadian rhythms; they all suggest that the intellectual basis of anti-depressants, all that stuff about serotonin and neuro-transmitters and re-uptake, is wrong. If depression is due to messed-up circadian rhythms, taking a drug at random times of day is unlikely to fix the underlying problem.

BoingBoing on Natto

This post by Lisa Katayama told me a few things I didn’t know — especially that there is “good soy” and “bad soy”. Good soy is mainly fermented (soy sauce, miso, and natto). The book she mentions (The Jungle Effect by Daphne Miller), which I didn’t know about, sounds interesting.

Katayama’s series about food has the global title “Taste Test” so I was disappointed she didn’t compare different brands. I have done natto taste tests. The big difference between brands is the sauce packets! This is not how taste tests are supposed to turn out. Natto has a mild flavor that doesn’t matter if you add sauces. The texture is very similar across brands.

Thanks to Bryan Casteneda.

Best TV Season Ever

Here are my favorites (better to worse):

  1. Mad Men.
  2. Glee.
  3. Lie to Me.
  4. The Good Wife.
  5. Survivor.
  6. Amazing Race.
  7. Ugly Betty.

Most seasons I might like three shows as much or more than I like Ugly Betty this season. In most seasons Amazing Race would be in the top three. And 60 Minutes, Frontline, 30 Rock, and Modern Family are watchable. Lie to Me and The Good Wife have both managed to make a case-of-the-week show seem fresh, new, and complex.

Obesity and Your Commute

In the 1950s — before the invention of BMI (Body Mass Index) — Jean Mayer and others did a study of obesity at a factory in India. They divided workers by how much exertion their job required. Almost everyone, even desk clerks, was thin, with the exception of the most sedentary. It appeared that walking one hour per day (to and from work) was enough to get almost all the weight loss possible with exercise. Doing more had greatly diminished returns. A study with rats suggested the same thing. Bottom line: If you’re sedentary, you can easily lose weight via exercise, which can be as simple as walking to work. If not, it’s hard.

This month GOOD has a kind of update of that ancient study — a scatterplot, each point a different country, that shows percentage of obesity and fraction of commutes that are active (bike or walk). It supports what Mayer and others found — that how you get to work makes a difference. If you fitted a line to the data it would have a negative slope (more obesity, less active commutes). America has the most obesity and relatively few active commutes; Switzerland has the most active commutes and relatively little obesity. The graph also suggests that other factors matter a lot. Although Australia has less active commutes than America, it also has less obesity.

Pfizer, After Having Its Way with the Good Citizens of New London …

Apparently Pfizer Pharmaceuticals, the biggest drug company in the world, needs all the bad publicity it can get. One of the last things Jane Jacobs wrote was a friend-of-the-court letter in the Supreme Court case Kelo v. New London where eminent domain was used to take property from private landowners and give it to a private corporation (Pfizer). It was just as outrageous as that sounds. And Pfizer got away with it. Now Pfizer is abandoning the site. Leaving a large empty lot where houses used to be. The CEO of Pfizer is Jeff Kindler.

Chatting With a Gmail Hacker

Someone broke into my gmail account. (I have regained control.) The hacker sent an email to about twenty people asking for money. To be sent to London. Here is a gchat conversation that ensued (me = the hacker, Richard = one of my students):

18:30Â Richard: do u need sth professor?
18:32Â me: nop
  not good at the moment
 Richard: what do u mean? ur feeling not well?

16 minutes
18:49Â me: HEY
18:50Â Richard: hey
18:51Â me: heop you get my mail?
 Richard: uh.. no
  when did u send it?
18:52Â me: I’m stuck in London with family right now
 Richard: wow!! u didn’t tell us u’re going to the uk!
18:53Â me: I’m sorry for this odd request because it might get to you too urgent but it’s because of the situation of things right now
 Richard: wait.. are you Kaiping or Seth?
 me: Seth
  i came down here on vacation
18:54Â Richard: oh..
  this is really odd
  i saw kaiping’s post saying that he’s with his family too..
18:55Â so u emailed to me? but i didn’t get it..
18:56Â u mentioned request.. what is the request in ur email?
18:57Â me: i was robbed, worse of it is that bags, cash and cards and my cell phone was stolen at GUN POINT, it’s such a crazy experience for me
 Richard: what!
where are you now? are you safe? 

18:58Â me: i need help flying back home, the authorities are not being 100% supportive but the good thing is i still have my passport but don’t have enough money to get my flight ticket back home and l need to clear the hotel bills here
 Richard: can u resend me the email?
18:59Â me: please i need you to loan me some money, will refund you as soon as I’m back home, i promise.Get back to me ASAP let me know what to do next
 Richard: can u log on gtalk so i can voice chat with u?
  not enough info for me
19:00Â i did get ur email so i don know how i can hel u
  ~help
19:02Â me: can i ask you a qus?
 Richard: yes
 me: tell me who is your best friend?
19:03Â Richard: …..my girlfriend i guess
 me: are you kidding me ?
 Richard: if ur serious about my helping u then…
19:04Â me: are want to who you her
  tell me who is your best friend?
 Richard: why does this matter if.. what?
  best friend okay, a guy in tsinghua
19:05Â but u don’t know him i guess
 me: the title of book I showed you lat time ?
 Richard: the shangri-la diet or mindless eating?
  ….professor, please
19:06Â me: stop kidding me
19:07Â Richard: professor i thought u r a little strangely
sorry.. i mean talking a little strangely 

  i should be confused
19:09Â why does these matter if ur trying to fly back?
19:11Â the thing is i didn’t get ur email so i do not know how to help
19:13Â me: You can wire it to my name from a western union outlet around. Here are the details you need to get it to me;
 Richard: can u use voice chat?
19:15Â it should be easy to install the voice char plugin for gmail, i mean we are not well connected, so it’s kinda slow
  i couldn’t help thinking this as an experiment…
19:16Â i think the easiest way would be u resending the email so i can get enough info
19:17Â besides, i may not have enough money so i would need time to trasfer money into my active account if we act fast enough we can get u home more quickly
19:18Â do u have a phone number of any kind?
19:19Â me: You can wire it to my name from a western union outlet around. Here are the details you need to get it to me;
Name – Seth Roberts
Location – 27 Leicester Square, London. England.
19:20Â Richard: and how much? all i have is rmb does it matter?
19:21Â me: how much can you loan me ?
 Richard: i donno. all i have in my account is about 4k yuan
19:24Â me: I still have my passport so i can use it as identification. You’ll be given a 10 digit confirmation number as soon as the transfer goes through, email it to me as soon as you have wired the cash to me.Regards
19:31Â me: you there
 Richard: yes professor do u have a phone number?
 me: nop
19:32Â Richard: but u have access to internet! where r u now?
 me: yes
19:35Â Richard: i gotta go good luck man

The Return of Charles “Disgraced” Nemeroff

So soon! Nemeroff, you may remember, took large sums of money from drug companies and failed to disclose them. What is that line about teaching an old dog new tricks? Here is what the New York Time s said:

The program, conducted online, had been led by Dr. Charles Nemeroff, an Emory University psychiatrist who last year was removed as department chairman and lost federal grant financing for failing to report income from 16 drug companies.

Dr. Carroll said that the program concealed unfavorable data and side effects of drugs made by AstraZeneca, which sponsored it, and played down alternatives to those drugs. In his complaint, Dr. Carroll wrote that the program “appears to make a mockery” of standards against bias.

In an e-mail message Tuesday night, Dr. Nemeroff defended the program. “The program was peer-reviewed and found to have fair balance,” he wrote.

Thanks to Michael Bowerman.