Can Professors Say the Truth? (my reply to Deirdre McCloskey’s 2nd letter)

In reply to Deirdre McCloskey’s second letter, I wrote:

Dear Professor McCloskey,

I’m glad to hear more of your side of the story. To answer your questions:

“In what way have I or anyone else in this debate abridged anyone’s free speech?” By attacking someone — Bailey — who said something you didn’t like. Fearful of future attacks from you or Conway or Andrea James, others will keep their mouths shut. The term is chilling effect. Here is Wikipedia’s definition: “A chilling effect is a situation where speech or conduct is suppressed or limited by fear of penalization at the hands of an individual or group.” Wikipedia’s example is fear of a lawsuit — which you have threatened (” I’m going to sue Bailey for defamation if . . . “). Minutes after I posted my second blog entry about the attacks on Bailey, the first post that mentioned you, I got an email from a wise friend. “There has been a big McCloskey/Bailey feud, I believe involving also lawsuits or the threat thereof,” he wrote. It was a warning. He was worried.

“In what does our great power lie?” In four things: 1. Job security. Not only tenure — you and Conway are near the top of your professions. 2. Money. 3. Respect. Your upcoming honorary degree, for example. A recent memoir by an esteemed economist praised you for your “courage.” Conway’s membership in the National Academy of Engineering. 4. Knowing how the system works — in particular how to get powerful bureaucracies (such as Northwestern’s) to do what you want. “We are a couple of professors not in sexology.” Please. You and Conway are not average professors. What fraction of professors get honorary degrees? What fraction of engineering professors are in the National Academy of Engineering?

“What about our right to free speech?” You think calling your absurd complaints to credulous and powerful authorities “free speech” somehow defends them? I don’t.

“What about our lives? . . . My children have not spoken to me since I transitioned, in 1995. I have two grandchildren I have not been allowed to meet.” Yes, that is horrible. No one should be treated like that. But the fact that you have been treated badly doesn’t justify doing something awful (your absurd complaints) to someone else.

How would I react if your scenario about psychologists came to pass? I would do nothing. I’m supposed to get upset that Person X asked Person Y for a letter and before Person Y wrote that letter he asked Person X to speak to him — perhaps about the contents of the letter? On what planet is that wrong? I should react because someone “had sex with a psychologist”? I should be upset that the person “used the “evidence” thus acquired to support his unscientific theories in a long book”? We are at a curious place in intellectual history when a Distinguished Professor of this and that, soon to receive an honorary degree from a major university, thinks that a sane person might be upset that someone had sex with a psychologist.

Your complaints to powerful and credulous authorities, you say, were not absurd because they were taken seriously. (”They took what you call an “absurd” complaint most seriously.”) Okay, here is why your complaints were absurd. 1. You and Conway complained to the State of Illinois that Bailey was practicing psychology without a license because he wrote letters on behalf of several persons who had come to him for help. He helped them! They came to him for help! To complain about this is absurd. To say your complaint “protects” anyone is absurd. To say what Bailey did resembles “mugging” is absurd. No one seeks out a mugger and asks to be mugged. 2. You and Conway orchestrated the filing of human-subjects complaints against Bailey. These complaints assumed that persons mentioned in stories in Bailey’s book were “research subjects” — simply because they were in the book. Never before in the history of science had the subject of a story told to illustrate a point been thereby considered a research subject. Bailey’s book is not a scientific monograph. It is not a piece of science. It is a trade book about science. When I or anyone else gives a lecture about a scientific subject, and tell a story from everyday life to make the conclusions come alive, do we need informed consent from everyone mentioned in the story? Of course not. No one has ever been required to do this. No one has ever done this. No one has ever even conceived of such a thing. The whole idea is absurd. Northwestern administrators may be credulous; I’m not.

Twice in your letter you combine two very different activities as if they are similar. “My criticism and complaint” is one example; “criticizing people in open forums and through channels” is the other. These two activities of yours were very different. Open-forum criticism, if factually correct, is fine with me. Absurd complaints to credulous authorities with the power to destroy someone’s career are much much less than fine with me. When Dreger says you tried to “ruin” Bailey, she is referring to the absurd complaints. Not to the review in Reason.

Sincerely,

Seth Roberts

Can Professors Say the Truth? (letter from Deirdre McCloskey)

Yesterday, to my surprise, I received an email from Deirdre McCloskey, whom I had criticized. Here it is:

Dear Professor Roberts:

I imagine you are not longer open to persuasion on the Bailey/Dreger issue, having written yourself on it in no uncertain terms after reading Dr. Dreger’s article and especially Mr. Carey’s piece in the Times. People are like that, I know. They swallow a line hastily acquired—in this case the Bailey = Galileo, “transsexual activists” (e.g. Barres, Roughgarden, McCloskey, Conway, and other distinguished scientists) = The Inquisition—and then won’t listen any more. It’s one of the main supports for the culture of yelling we seem to have developed in the United States over the past couple of decades.

But in case you are more careful and thoughtful than your blog suggests, I attach a couple of attempts to persuade you that you’ve got the story wrong. Dreger is wrong, and what’s more important in the long run a theory based on ignoring most of the scientific evidence, and appealing instead to the sort of prejudices about queers you praise in your piece, is wrong.

Sincerely,

Deirdre McCloskey

Attached to the email were copies of her Reason review of Bailey’s book, a commentary by her on Dreger’s article, and her vita.

I replied:

Dear Professor McCloskey:

Thank you for writing. I am happy to have complaints about my writing but it would help if you were more specific. What in my blog wasn’t “careful and thoughtful”? When you say I wasn’t careful you seem to be saying there are factual mistakes in what I wrote. If so, please tell me; I would like to correct them.

In your letter, you seem to say I have “swallow[ed] a line hastily acquired.” This is puzzling, since in my blog I mention writing to you about Bailey’s book draft many years ago. Surely thinking about something for many years isn’t hasty. One of your attachments is the review you wrote for Reason. Another puzzle because I quote from this review in my blog.

In your article about Dreger’s paper, you “deny that [you] worked ‘to ruin Bailey professional and personally” but this denial is incomplete and unconvincing. It’s incomplete because you don’t defend the letter you wrote to the State of Illinois complaining that Bailey had practiced medicine without a license. That is exactly trying to ruin someone.

And you don’t convince me that causing to be filed an absurd human-subjects complaint against Bailey constitutes some sort of virtuous act. “Complaining through channels about mistreatment of his victims”! Please. It is another example of trying to ruin someone.

In your email to me, you write:

what’s more important in the long run a theory based on ignoring most of the scientific evidence, and appealing instead to the sort of prejudices about queers you praise in your piece, is wrong.

This may be the big issue to you; it isn’t the big issue to me. The big issue for me is free speech. Two professors (you and Conway) with great power tried to silence someone who said something they didn’t like. I titled my blog posts on the topic “Can Professors Say the Truth?” The “truth” was not Blanchard’s theory; it was that Blanchard had proposed a theory, a theory that Bailey accurately described. Blanchard said something; Bailey accurately reported what he said. The accurate reporting was the “truth”. Somehow it was not enough for you and Conway that Blanchard’s theory, if false, would eventually be discarded. Somehow it was not enough to attack the theory; you had to attack Bailey too, and in an awful way — by filing absurd complaints with credulous and powerful bureaucracies.

Sincerely,

Seth Roberts

Today she replied to my reply.

Something is Better than Nothing: Wedding Costs

The Numbers Guy Wall Street Journal columnist wrote recently about reporting the average cost of weddings. He said the averages are means, not medians, they don’t include certain groups, and so on. It was one of the better numerical discussions I’ve seen in a newspaper.

However, it was about 25% of an ideal discussion. When I was a freshman in college, I went to a talk about life on other planets. The speaker wrote a bunch of numbers on the board, multiplied them together, and came up with something that was supposed to estimate the number of other planets with life. After the talk, I asked, “What’s the error in that number?” The speaker had no idea.

If the Numbers Guy gave his column as a talk, during the question period I would say: “You’ve told us what’s wrong with those numbers. Thanks. I’d also like to know what’s good about them.” His column and blog contain nothing about this.

Here’s my answer:

1. Sure, the median is more interesting than the mean. Because the distribution is obviously skewed positive (like the distribution of incomes), the mean provides an upper bound on the median. If the mean is $30,000, for example, the median must be less. That’s helpful to know.

2. Assuming the distribution of wedding costs resembles the distribution of incomes, I’d guess that the median is somewhere between half and two-thirds of the mean. So the mean is providing even more useful information.

3. The false precision of some estimates (e.g., “$27,852″) indicates the numerical savvy of their source. That too is helpful to know. I will take the rest of what they say less seriously. In a talk I attended, Richard Herrnstein, the Harvard psychologist, said a certain t value was so large that he had to use a special table to find the associated p value. This was a accurate foreshadowing of the quality of The Bell Curve, which Herrnstein co-authored.

That brings us to about half of a good discussion. The other half would come from eliminating the long discussion of sampling bias. Yes, the wedding industry loves sampling methods that overestimate the average cost. I knew that before I read the column. What I don’t know is a method that will tend to underestimate the average cost and thus provide a lower bound. That’s what I’d like to read about.

Something is better than nothing. Micronutrient requirements.

Criticize by Creating

The Whole Foods – Wild Oats merger can finally take place, I was pleased to learn. A court denied the Federal Trade Commission’s request for a stay. The world needs more CEO’s like Whole Foods CEO John Mackey. In a talk he gave at Berkeley last year, he quoted Michaelangelo: “Criticize by creating,” a wise and memorable saying that I hadn’t heard before. That’s exactly what Mackey has done.

Saul Sternberg on Research Strategy

In a recent post I guessed that it would be better to begin to study the effects of omega-3 and other fats on the brain with healthy subjects than with “unhealthy” ones — that is, persons with obvious brain dysfunction. So far, almost all behavioral studies of omega-3 have used unhealthy subjects — adults with bipolar disorder or depression, children with coordination problems, autism, or ADHD. My guess was based on three things: 1. A thought experiment. Imagine trying to learn how cars work. You’d rather experiment with working cars than broken cars. 2. Healthy subjects are far more available and easier to study. 3. The work of Saul Sternberg, who pioneered the study of memory using tests on which subjects are very accurate (e.g., 95% correct). The main measure of performance on these tasks was speed (called reaction time) rather than accuracy. After his work, reaction-time experiments became far more popular. In my study of the effects of flaxseed oil, I had directly compared high- and low-accuracy tasks. I had measured the effects of flaxseed oil using two high-accuracy tasks (arithmetic and memory-scanning) and a low-accuracy task (digit span). The effects were much clearer (smaller p values) with the high-accuracy tasks.

I asked Sternberg what he thought of my guess. He wrote, “I certainly agree that it is worth studying the effects of X on “normal” brains, where X can be many things” and later added:

I suspect my decision to measure [reaction] time under conditions of high accuracy was multiply determined, and that the determinants included some speculative notions. E. g. I may have thought that the variety of strategies is greater when the system is overloaded and errors are occurring than when it is functioning smoothly, so one was more likely to get clear answers about an underlying mechanism. Also, there was something of a tradition of measuring RT in experiments on “information processing” that weren’t normally described as memory experiments, but could be. Another reason was probably that I felt that RT – a continuous measure – probably contained more “information” than errors, with a few discrete possibilities, did.

It is possible that the emphasis in memory experiments on studying accuracy when the relevant brain system is failing was influenced by the study of sensory processes, where the experimental and analytic techniques (e.g., for measuring discriminability and detectability) were well worked out, and where it is believed that the enterprise has been highly successful. Also, sensory detectability and discriminability may be more intrinsically interesting and more closely related to actual situations of practical concern than accurate performance.

The Twilight of Expertise (part 10: book reviewers)

According to Publisher’s Weekly, a new program at amazon.com called

Amazon Vine rewards the site’s elite reviewers by giving them access to advance copies. According to a representative at Amazon, invitations have gone out to the site’s “top reviewers,” deemed so by their review rankings, to become Vine Voices.

I once read about a Los Angeles catering business that wasn’t doing so well until they doubled their prices. This is the opposite of that.

From Seth Godin:

When the Times switched from 10 books on the Hardcover [Best Sellers] list, they created a list of 15 Hardcover [Best Sellers] and a list of 5 Advice, How To and Miscellaneous [Best Sellers]. I wrote in and asked the editor why they only had 5 titles on this list and 15 on the others. She wrote back and said,

“Because we don’t want people to read those books.”

Pride goeth before a fall.

Nassim Taleb on Research Strategy

In Forbes, Nassim Taleb, author of The Black Swan, made some comments I like:

Things, it turns out, are all too often discovered by accident. . . . Academics are starting to realize that a considerable component of medical discovery comes from the fringes, where people find what they are not exactly looking for. It is not just that hypertension drugs led to Viagra or that angiogenesis drugs led to the treatment of macular degeneration, but that even discoveries we claim come from research are themselves highly accidental. They are the result of undirected tinkering narrated after the fact, when it is dressed up as controlled research. The high rate of failure in scientific research should be sufficient to convince us of the lack of effectiveness in its design. If the success rate of directed research is very low, though, it is true that the more we search, the more likely we are to find things “by accident,” outside the original plan.

If the success rate per test is low, a good research strategy is to start with low-cost tests. Ants do this: They search with low-cost tests (single ants), exploit with high-cost tests (many ants). I don’t think the need to use different tools at different stages in the scientific process is well understood. John Tukey used the terms exploratory data analysis and confirmatory data analysis to make this point about data analysis but distinguishing exploratory and confirmatory experimental design is much less common.

I think my self-experimentation has been productive partly because it is a low-cost way of testing. All my interesting discoveries were accidents. My latest omega-3 research started with an accidental observation.

Science in Action: Omega-3 (VSE)

VSE = Very Short Experiment. After VSL (Very Short List). I did this experiment yesterday. It took the whole day but the results were clear by noon.

At about 7 am I took 4 tablespoons of flaxseed oil (Spectrum Organic). I measured my mental function with a letter-counting test. Here is what happened.

RT results

My reaction times decreased 2-3 hours after drinking the flaxseed oil. Over the next 6-8 hours they returned to baseline.

For cognoscenti, here are the accuracy data:

accuracy results

Accuracy was fairly constant.

These results resemble earlier time-course measurements (here and here). What pleases me so much is not the confirmation — after the earlier two results I had found the dip a third time and had found that olive oil does not cause a dip — but how fast and clear the main result (the dip) was. I could have done a mere four tests (7, 8, 10, 11 am) and found interesting results — I knew that the 8 am test was too early to see a difference so it would have been two tests “before” and two “after”. Six hours of testing can say something interesting about what we should eat and how to make our brains work best.

If you’ve been reading this blog you won’t be surprised that flaxseed oil helps; what’s new is how easily I can test a big wide world of foods. Salmon, trout, herring, fish oil, olive oil, canola oil, walnut oil, soybean oil, and so on. All sources of fat. Not to mention eggs.

I take 4 tablespoons of flaxseed oil most days; I am not suffering from too little omega-3, as most people are. This improvement is on top of the improvement produced by getting enough omega-3 most days. If I stopped taking flaxseed oil, my mental function would slowly get worse, as an earlier experiment (here and here) showed.

Can Professors Say the Truth? (radio show)

Part of today’s KQED Forum program with Michael Krasny was devoted to the attacks on Michael Bailey and his book. Here is the webpage. Joan Roughgarden, a professor of biology at Stanford, was one of the guests. After Bailey gave a talk at Stanford in 2003, Roughgarden wrote an op-ed in the student newspaper that contained the following sentence:

To many observers, Bailey appears to be a rather dumb, stubborn, dense and possibly deceptive regular guy with some experience in locker-room humor.

This sort of comment would go over poorly on KQED, so what would she say? It turns out that she calls Bailey’s book a “fraud.” It is fradulent because it is not “science” — by which she means a scientific article — in spite of having the word science in the title. Apparently Roughgarden thinks that if you write a book about science it is fraud to use the word science in the title. She also complains that Bailey uses stories based on transsexuals he had met to illustrate Blanchard’s theory. She calls those stories Bailey’s evidence for the theory, ignoring the evidence in Blanchard’s papers. This is not quite the incisive criticism we might expect from a Stanford professor.

A Novelist on the Aquatic Ape Theory of Evolution

Plausibility of the Aquatic Ape Theory of Human Evolution is one reason I started studying the effects of omega-3s. Novelist Elizabeth Bear doesn’t like it:

[Doris] Lessing appears to have drawn her background from Elaine Morgan’s notorious pseudoscientific tome, The Descent of Woman (1972), which argues that human evolution was shaped by a seal-like return to the sea. Crackpot theories can make for great fiction but in this case . . .

That I found beneficial effects of omega-3s many times supports the “crackpot” theory.