Christmas: An Evolutionary Explanation

In a kitchenware store a few years ago I came across the Rotary Nutcracker, a futuristic-looking device that cracks nuts in a new way. The girl at the cash register gave me a few walnuts to test it. It didn’t crack any of them. This was a curious product, I thought. Who would buy it? The salesperson told me that they’d stocked it for less than a year. I was the first person to test it. It had sold well during holiday season. Now I understood: people didn’t buy it for themselves, they bought it as a gift. As a gift, it mattered much less how well it worked — “it’s the thought that counts.” No wonder I was the first to test it.

Here, I saw, was my theory of human evolution in . . . well, a nutshell. At least part of it. Humans are the only animals with occupational specialization — we specialize, and trade. It started with hobbies. Hobbies became part-time jobs. Part-time jobs became full-time jobs. To support full-time jobs — to generate enough demand — there has to be enough expertise, which builds up slowly. To build up expertise, our brains changed so as to cause creation of special events like Christmas, Japanese New Year, Spring Festival (in China), and a thousand other examples around the world. Such events increase the demand for high-end craftsmanship, thus helping the most skilled craftsmen — the ones most likely to advance the state of their art — make a living. Christmas increases the demand for Christmas cards (fine printing) and Christmas-tree ornaments, for example. Traditional gift-giving has the same effect: It increases demand for “the better things in life.” Most gifts, if you follow the usual norms, are (a) not something you would buy for yourself and (b) not something the recipient would buy. (As Alex Tabarrok has noticed.) They are harder to make — and thus reward skilled craftsmen more — than the stuff we buy for ourselves, just as Christmas ornaments are harder to make than common household objects and Christmas-card printing is more difficult than most printing. Weddings, with the gifts, finery, invitations, etc., are another example. The Rotary Nutcracker didn’t work in my tests but it almost worked. If enough people bought it as a gift, that would finance the research needed to improve it.

Marginal Revolution and James Surowiecki have recently written about the “deadweight loss of Christmas” — about how gifts tend to be worth less than their cost. I think they see this as bad thing but I see it as a good thing — at least, in our evolutionary past it was a good thing. Likewise, the denizens of The Devil Wears Prada appear slightly defensive about the social value of fashion. They seem to believe that fashion is less useful than “curing cancer” (by which they mean doing research to learn how to cure cancer). Actually, high fashion, with its hard-to-make skirts, belts, and accessories, is the same as curing cancer — they’re two ways of increasing the human skill set. Art is the old Science.

Why I Like Self-Experimentation

Self-experimentation, like blogs, Wikipedia, and open-source software (and before them, books) gives outsiders far more power. This took me a long time to figure out. For years, I liked self-experimentation for five reasons:

1. It worked. It reduced my acne, improved my sleep, and enabled me to lose plenty of weight. This surprised me. I am a professional scientist. My professional experiments, about animal learning, generally worked, but never had practical value.

2. It had unexpected benefits. I discovered accidentally that seeing faces in the morning improved my mood the next day. Better sleep (from self-experimentation) improved my health.

3. It was easy. What I did never involved more than small changes in my life. Even standing 8 hours per day wasn’t hard, after a few days.

4. My conclusions fit what others had found — usually, facts that didn’t fit mainstream views. For example, the fact that depression is often worst in the morning and gets better throughout the day doesn’t fit the conventional view that depression is a biochemical disorder but does fit my idea that depression is often due to a malfunctioning circadian oscillator. Self-experimentation seemed to be pointing me in correct directions.

5. My conclusions were surprising. That breakfast is bad (for sleep), the effect of faces on mood, and the Shangri-La Diet are examples.

Recently, though, the rise of blogging, Wikipedia, and open-source software, showed me the power of a kind of multiplicative force: (pleasure of hobbies) multiplied by (professional skills). Blogging, for example: (people enjoy writing) multiplied by (professional expertise, which gives them something interesting and unusual to say). In other words, expertise and job skills used in a hobby-like way. My self-experimentation, I realized, was another example: I used my professional (scientific) skills to solve everyday problems. My self-experimentation was like a hobby in that I did it year after year without financial reward or recognition. It was its own reward. The hobby aspect — persistence, freedom to try anything, no need for recognition or payment — made it powerful. I could go in depth where professionals couldn’t go at all.

But I was still missing something — something obvious to many others. The power of blogging isn’t

(hobby) x (job skills).

That’s just one person. The total power of blogging is

(hobby) x (job skills) x (anyone can do it)

Which is very powerful. Finally I saw there was a sixth reason to like self-experimentation:

6. Anyone can do it.

As Aaron Swartz Read more “Why I Like Self-Experimentation”

Web Trials

Thanks to Rey Arbolay, at the Shangri-La Diet forums, the eternal question “will this help?” is being answered in a new way. The specific question is “will the Shangri-La Diet help me lose weight?” The new way of answering it is that people are posting their results with the diet in the Post Your Tracking Data Here section of the forums. What they post is standardized and numerical enough that ordinary statistical methods can be used to learn from them. I’ll call this sort of thing a web trial.

It’s a lot better than nothing or a series of individual cases studied separately. I learned a lot from my most recent analysis — for example, that people lose at a rate of about 1 pound per week after Week 5. I couldn’t have done a good job of predicting where any of the fitted lines on the scatterplots would be or the size of the male/female difference. Nor could I have done a good job predicting the variability — the scatter around the lines.

It’s a lot worse than perfection. It would be much better if a comparison treatment (in the case of SLD, a different way of losing weight) was being tested in the same way. Then results from the two treatments could be compared and you would be closer to answering the practical question “what should I do?” (That modern clinical trials — very difficult and expensive — still use placebo control groups although placebos are not serious treatment options is a sign of . . . something not good.)

I can imagine a future in which people with a health problem (acne, insomnia, etc.) go to a website and enroll in a web trial. They told about several plausible treatments: A, B, C, etc., all readily available. They are given a choice of (a) choosing among them or (b) being randomly assigned. They post their results in a standardized format for a few weeks or months. Then someone with data analysis skills analyzes the data and posts the results. As for the participants, if the problem hasn’t been solved they could enroll again. This would be a way that anyone with a problem could help everyone with that problem, including themselves. The people who set up the trials and analyze the results would be like the book industry or Wikipedia insiders — people with special skills who help everyone learn from everyone.

Secrets of a Successful Blog (part 2)

Aaron Swartz is an excellent software developer (co-founder of reddit), a creative and interesting writer, and a successful blogger, judging by number of comments. I asked him what makes a blog successful. Three things, he said:

1. Persistence. Readership builds over time.

2. Frequency. The more often, the better. It is pure operant conditioning (although Aaron, a fan of anti-behaviorist Alfie Kohn, did not use that term): When people check your blog and find new content they are rewarded, and keep checking. If they check and find nothing new, they stop checking. Although Aaron uses an aggregator (which does the checking), only about 15% of blog readers do so, he said. (I use Sage, a Firefox add-on.) Aaron posts every day or so.

3. A distinct voice. When people visit your blog they should know what to expect. When he started he blogged about all sorts of things but has become more consistent from one entry to the next.

Part 1 (Marginal Revolution co-author Tyler Cowan’s view) is here, with comments here.

Jimmy Berenson on the Shangri-La Diet

When Catherine Johnson, co-author of Animals In Translation, saw The Shangri-La Diet in a bookstore, she remembered the Freakonomics column about me. Her 19-year-old son Jimmy Berenson is autistic. Because of his autism, he takes a drug that causes weight gain. Over the last few years, it made him obese. In July 2006, Catherine started him on SLD (first 1, then 2 tablespoons of ELOO/day). Here is what happened:

Jimmy Berenson on the Shangri-La Diet

Seeing is believing: One of Catherine’s neighbors was skeptical about SLD, even when told of Jimmy’s results. Only when she saw Jimmy’s results, as graphed by Catherine, did she decide to try it. There is more information at Catherine’s blog.

Thanks to Andrew Gelman for his comments on this graph.

Books Were the First Open-Source Software

Here is Aaron Swartz on Wikipedia:

When you put it all together, the story becomes clear: an outsider makes one edit to add a chunk of information [to a Wikipedia entry], then insiders make several edits tweaking and reformatting it. In addition, insiders rack up thousands of edits doing things like changing the name of a category across the entire site — the kind of thing only insiders deeply care about. As a result, insiders account for the vast majority of the edits. But it’s the outsiders who provide nearly all of the content.

(Correcting Wikipedia’s founder, by the way.) When I visited my editor, Marian Lizzi, at Penguin, I realized that book publishing is exactly the same: Outsiders write the books, insiders edit them.

The curious thing about book publishing is similar to what Swartz noticed in a different realm: The content, the crucial stuff, is entirely from amateurs. No other industry, with the possible exception of craft shows, is like this. If I run a deli, I buy supplies and food from people who make their living selling supplies and food. If I make clothes, I buy my cloth from professional cloth makers. If I make cheese, my milk comes from professional farmers. Only book publishers endlessly deal with amateurs.

continued

Science Versus Human Nature

Last weekend I saw the writer Thomas Cahill on Book TV. He mentioned his book How The Irish Saved Civilization. The real contribution of the Irish, he said, wasn’t that they saved the sacred texts, it was that they brought humor to their study. “They brought irreverence to reverence,” he said. “That was entirely new.”

This reminded me of Brian Wansink’s comments about cool data. His notion that research designs should be judged on their coolness was entirely new to me. I’m not the only one; the Wikipedia entry for scientific method says nothing about it. Using cool and research design in the same sentence is quite a bit like bringing irreverence to reverence. Once somebody says it, though, it makes sense. I remember being thanked after an interview; I replied that there’s no point doing the research if no one ever learns about it. Coolness obviously plays into that — influences the chance that other people will learn about it.

I think most scientists will agree with Wansink, that coolness matters. I think you don’t find his idea in books and articles about scientific method not only because there is so little written about research design (at least compared to the amount written about data analysis) but also because it appears undignified. “I’m important, I shouldn’t have to worry about being cool” is the (very human) unspoken attitude.

Varieties of Shangri-La Diet Experience

The theory behind the Shangri-La Diet suggests several new ways of losing weight. As far as I can tell, they all work at least some of the time. To get an overview of the new methods, I asked users to rate them on power and ease of use. (Thanks to Brian Wansink for this suggestion.) Here are the average ratings (so far):

Power and Ease of Use of Different Ways of Doing the Shangri-La Diet

The two scales were defined as follows:

Power
5 = very powerful
4 = quite powerful
3 = somewhat powerful
2 = slightly powerful
1= not powerful at all

Ease of Use
5 = very easy/convenient
4 = quite easy/convenient
3 = easy enough
2 = quite difficult
1 = too difficult to ever do

The cluster in the top corner consists of “flavorless oil” and “nose-clipped oil”.

I like to think this little diagram predicts the future of SLD: lots of people drinking flavorless oil, lots of people drinking nose-clipped oil, fewer people drinking sugar water, etc. A friend of mine showed me a photo of her when she was 2 years old. Another 2-year-old was in the picture but I could tell which one was my friend.

I collected the data by Web. Maybe I should have used www.surveymonkey.com (as my students have) but it was incredibly easy compared to other data-collection methods.

American Haiku

The American version of haiku, I submit, is a Priceless ad. My contributions:

The Shangri-La Diet: $15 (including shipping)
bottle of grapeseed oil: $6
additional groceries each month: -$200
not worrying where your next Yodel is coming from: priceless

Note to SLD dieters: The reference to grapeseed oil dates this. I now drink refined walnut oil and flaxseed oil (nose-clipped).

smaller pants: $60
blush I use as excuse for better-looking skin: $8
blood test for improved lipids: $80
migraine-free TOM: priceless

Short blog posts are a little like haiku.

Update (7 Dec 06): funny coincidence.

The Invisible Made Visible

An artist, UC Santa Cruz professor of art history Mary Holmes would say, is someone who makes the invisible visible. Does that make the Internet an artist? These examples of the invisible made visible impress me:

1. Security footage of a man stealing two chairs. (Thanks to HuntGrunt.)

2. Tracking data at the Shangri-La Diet forums reveal what weight loss is like for other people.

I think the other extreme — the very visible made extremely visible — is also art. Here is an example: David Caruso one-liners. Too funny not to be art.