Assorted Links

Thanks to Jeff Winkler and Tom George.

Assorted Links

  • Walking after a meal improves blood sugar
  • A look at QSers. “S ome of the most societally redefining concepts now emerge from edge-thinkers, who are increasingly visible, organized, and effective, in part due to the Web. Even so, whenever I spoke to them or read their blogs, at some point I always wondered, why?”
  • Steve McIntyre vindicated. RealClimate says: “That is the most disquieting legacy of Steve McIntyre and ClimateAudit [McIntyre’s blog]. The real Yamal deception is their attempt to damage public confidence in science by making speculative and scandalous claims about the actions and motivations of scientists while cloaking them in a pretense of advancing scientific knowledge.” A comment on ClimateAudit: “It’s quite obvious that in 2009 and again in 2011, you shamelessly plagiarised Briffa 2013.”

Thanks to Jazi Zilber and Phil Alexander.

Assorted Links

  • natural acne remedies
  • A mainstream climate scientist has doubts. “We’re facing a puzzle. Recent CO2 emissions have actually risen even more steeply than we feared. As a result, according to most climate models, we should have seen temperatures rise by around 0.25 degrees Celsius (0.45 degrees Fahrenheit) over the past 10 years. That hasn’t happened. In fact, the increase over the last 15 years was just 0.06 degrees Celsius (0.11 degrees Fahrenheit) — a value very close to zero. This is a serious scientific problem.” What would Bill McKibben say?
  • Personal Experiments, a research site where you can sign up for experiments.
  • Trouble at GSK Shanghai. The defenses of the accused strike me as plausible.
  • Sleep disturbance in a hospital. “Between 10 p.m. and 6 a.m., I did not go more than an hour without some kind of interruption.” As ridiculous as cutting off part of the immune system because of too many infections (tonsillectomies) and the view that acne has nothing to do with diet.

Thanks to Dave Lull.

Assorted Links

Thanks to Dave Lull and Ashish Mukharji.

The Climategate Leaker Speaks

The person who assembled and disseminated the Climategate emails has now explained his or her actions:

The first glimpses I got behind the scenes did little to [increase] my trust in the state of climate science — on the contrary. I found myself in front of a choice that just might have a global impact.

Briefly put, when I had to balance the interests of my own safety, privacy\career of a few scientists, and the well-being of billions of people living in the coming several decades, the first two weren’t the decisive concern.

It was me or nobody, now or never. Combination of several rather improbable prerequisites just wouldn’t occur again for anyone else in the foreseeable future. The circus was about to arrive in Copenhagen. Later on it could be too late.

Most would agree that climate science has already directed where humanity puts its capability, innovation, mental and material “might”. The scale will grow ever grander in the coming decades if things go according to script. We’re dealing with $trillions and potentially drastic influence on practically everyone.

Wealth of the surrounding society tends to draw the major brushstrokes of a newborn’s future life. It makes a huge difference whether humanity uses its assets to achieve progress, or whether it strives to stop and reverse it, essentially sacrificing the less fortunate to the climate gods.

We can’t pour trillions in this massive hole-digging-and-filling-up endeavor and pretend it’s not away from something and someone else.

If the economy of a region, a country, a city, etc. deteriorates, what happens among the poorest? Does that usually improve their prospects? No, they will take the hardest hit. No amount of magical climate thinking can turn this one upside-down.

It’s easy for many of us in the western world to accept a tiny green inconvenience and then wallow in that righteous feeling, surrounded by our “clean” technology and energy that is only slightly more expensive if adequately subsidized.

Those millions and billions already struggling with malnutrition, sickness, violence, illiteracy, etc. don’t have that luxury. The price of “climate protection” with its cumulative and collateral effects is bound to destroy and debilitate in great numbers, for decades and generations.

Conversely, a “game-changer” could have a beneficial effect encompassing a similar scope.

If I had a chance to accomplish even a fraction of that, I’d have to try. I couldn’t morally afford inaction. Even if I risked everything, would never get personal compensation, and could probably never talk about it with anyone.

I took what I deemed the most defensible course of action, and would do it again (although with slight alterations — trying to publish something truthful on RealClimate was clearly too grandiose of a plan ;-) .

Even if I have it all wrong and these scientists had some good reason to mislead us (instead of making a strong case with real data) I think disseminating the truth is still the safest bet by far.

From my point of view, the best thing about the Climategate emails is that they were more evidence that mainstream thinking about something can be grossly wrong — that a “crazy” position can be right. My self-experimentation taught me this over and over (e.g., the Shangri-La Diet).

Assorted Links

“The Most Influential Tree in the World”

The title comes from Andrew Montford’s new book Hiding the Decline (copy given me by author) about Climategate. From an introductory section:

When the figures were published the extraordinary lack of data underlying the blade of the Yamal hockey stick caused a minor sensation. In fact the high point at the end of the graph was shown to have been based on only four trees, and only one of these had the hockey stick shape. McIntyre dubbed it ‘the most influential tree in the world’.

Most of Hiding the Decline is about the inquiries that followed Climategate. I enjoyed reading about smug powerful people making fools of themselves and the fairy-tale-like consternation created by two unlikely events: 1. A non-scientist (Steve McIntyre) gets involved in the global warming debate. As in a fairy tale, McIntyre is free to speak the truth. In particular, he is free to question. Professional climate scientists cannot speak the truth for fear of career damage. 2. The release of the Climategate emails. As in a fairy tale, a sudden burst of truth about bad behavior previously hidden.

Hiding the Decline is as well-written as a book by a professional writer but this is a book no professional science writer could write due to its investment in an officially-wrong point of view. There are lots of badly-written books from tiny-minority points of view. The appearance of a well-written one, joining Montford’s earlier The Hockey Stick Illusion, is no small deal. How much free speech do we have? It depends on the medium. Maybe the sequence from less to more censored is: 1. Conversation. 2. Email and other private writing. 3. Blog post. 4. Poorly-written book. 5. Article in minor magazine. 6. Well-written book. 7. Article in prestigious magazine. 8. Textbook. From one step to the next (e.g., from conversation to email), views become less diverse. This book is disagreement with the official line high up the tree.

One reason we enjoy certain jokes is that they speak a forbidden truth. When you can’t usually say it, the truth is funny. The forbidden truth aspect of Hiding the Decline is another reason I enjoyed it so much.

Does the story have a happy ending? Montford thinks not:

As we look back over the ten years of this story, the impression we get is of a wave of dishonesty, a public sector that will spin and lie, and mislead and lie, and distort and lie, and lie again. . . . Despite the emails showing, apparently incontrovertibly, that FOI laws were flouted with the full knowledge of senior figures in university, there have been almost no discernible repercussions for anyone involved. . . . The response to [Climategate] was an extraordinary failure of the institutions and of the people who are paid to protect the public interest – a failure of honesty, a failure of diligence, a failure of integrity.

My view is different. The institutions (University of East Anglia, Penn State, and so on) and officials (e.g., Vice Chancellor of the University of East Anglia) “failed” only in their ostensible purpose. Their actual purpose centers on protecting the people who created or hired them (see The Dictator’s Handbook). At this they succeeded, but suffered a large loss of credibility. To me, Climategate is the story of how two people — Steve McIntyre and the hacker of the Climategate emails — both with zero official standing, had a huge effect on worldwide public discourse. (A Google search for Climategate returns about 2 million hits.) They exposed dishonesty in powerful and heretofore respected people (science professors) on a matter far more important than expense accounts. They pushed the rest of us a non-trivial distance toward seeing the truth. I didn’t know that was possible, and I’m glad it is.

Assorted Links

Thanks to Patrick Vlaskovits.

Assorted Links

Thanks to Adam Clemens, Melissa McEwen, and Navanit Arakeri.

Assorted Links

Thanks to Bryan Castañeda and Alex Blackwood.